National rankings based on 119 teams and the ACC rankings on 12 teams:
Fourth Down Conversions - FSU in 2007 had 17 attempts on fourth down. Of those, the Noles converted 8 for a 47.06% conversion rate. In comparison, league leaders Miami and Clemson had 62.50% conversion rates on fourth down attempts.
ACC Ranking: 2007- #7 2006- #7
National Ranking: 2007- #71 2006- #72
There are studies that show that a coach would increase the probability of winning a game by going on fourth down for the first down or touchdown much more often, and punting and going for the field goal much less often. Although that may be the case, most coaches are conservative in regard to fourth down.
It is interesting to note that national champion LSU had a 81.25% fourth down conversion rate and ranked first nationally in 2007.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Breaking Down The Numbers: Fourth Down Conversions
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3 comments:
Although that may be the case, most coaches are conservative in regard to fourth down.
Urban Meyer, Mack Brown, Les Miles, Mike Leach, Pete Carrol, Vince Lombardi, Bill Parcells, Bill Walsh, and Bill Belichek buck this trend, follow those studies because they make sense and are logical and because they aren't scared of the traditional media backlash.
FSU grossly underutilizes 4th down. The key factor is NOT conversion rate. The key factor to look for is attempts. Going for it on 4th n 3 from the 4 yard line, and getting stuffed is better than kicking the field goal (at a mid 90's %), then kicking off and letting your opponent start from the 25.
Well said.
Thanks Tallynole fan.
People often think that voices on the internet can't change things. That is untrue. As the internet becomes a more and more universal medium, the influence of its users grows.
I will point you to the example of USSmariner.com USS Mariner is a blog of Seattle Mariners fans, and is primarily run by a guy named Dave. The guys on USSMariner noticed something one day about their phenom pitcher, 20 year old (at the time) Felix Hernandez.
They noticed that he was throwing 30% more fastballs in the first inning than any other inning! They also noticed that hitters were hitting .650! off of these first inning fast balls. While the organization philosophy was to establish the fastball early, it clearly wasn't working when taken to that extreme! (Draw your own comparison about our strategy of "getting points on the board" as opposed to going with the correct call and going for it.)
One day, when this stud pitcher was warming up, a guy threw a piece of paper into the bullpen! It was a blog posting from USS Mariner! The pitching coach grabbed the piece of paper, looked up, and said something to the effect of "okay, thanks."
In subsequent outings, Felix reduced the % of fastballs he threw in the first inning, hitters were unable to sit and tee off because they no longer knew what was coming, and fans and organization interacted to achieve a better result!
We can do this. This team does some things that are way behind the times. I'm not proposing that we do anything radical or new. I am only proposing that we band together and make everyone knowledgeable about the things we should be doing. We must first catch up to move ahead!
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